2015: Smooth Sail For Jonathan

As we approach the presidential elections
billed for February 14, 2015, below is the in-
depth look at six reasons why Otuoke-born
leader of the country, Goodluck Jonathan, is
the man to beat:
President Goodluck Jonathan

1. Incumbency Factor:

History has shown time and again that except in
extremely rare cases, sitting African presidents
don't lose elections. Even when they do, it is usually
hard for them to relinquish power. The Nigerian
situation is even worse. The umpire in the elections,
the Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) and the security agencies, are at the beck
and call of the Aso Rock landlord, who can easily
manipulate them for his own electoral advantage.
Unfortunately, the heads of these agencies are first
of all loyal to their boss, the president, instead of to
Nigerians, Nigeria and the Nigerian constitution.
Even with his perceived unpopularity across the
nation, President Goodluck Jonathan is likely to carry
the day after next year's contest.

2. PDP's National Appeal:

You cannot take anything away from the ruling
party. Their national spread, grassroots mobilization
strategies and a litany of deep pockets amongst
their ranks, always gives them an edge in any
political contest. The party's hierarchy at both
national, state and local government levels has no
doubt done its homework ahead of the 2015
elections. Another advantage the party has that
swells its numbers on a daily basis is the fact that,
just like every other political party in Nigeria, the
PDP has no clear ideology and direction, which is
why 'stomach-inspired' politicians from the nooks
and crannies of the nation find solace in the party in
order to partake and actively participate in the
proverbial 'national cake' sharing.
PDP National Chairman, Adamu Muazu

3. Southern Solidarity:

This is one solid support base the president can
bank on to deliver the votes for him in their large
numbers come 2015. There seem to be an unwritten
agreement between the South South people and
their counterparts in the South East to vote for the
University of Port Harcourt graduate in next year's
presidential elections. Although, historically, this
won't come as a surprise to political watchers as the
two zones had always aligned politically.
President Jonathan and Fmr. Gov. Peter Obi of
Anambra

4. Religious Bias:

Sadly, religion will play a major role in the voting
pattern of Nigerians in next year's presidential
elections. This is partly due to the activities of
Islamic extremist group, Boko Haram. It is widely
expected that most Christians across the nation will
rather keep Goodluck Jonathan in power than vote
someone who is not an adherent of their faith. There
are concerns by the Christian community in Nigeria
that if someone from the Muslim community
emerges as the President, it will not augur well for
them in terms of their safety. These views are
mostly from Christians in the north who are in
minority there. This is also as Boko Haram has
always insisted that its ultimate goal is to Islamize
Nigeria.
Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor and President Goodluck
Jonathan

5. Feeble Electorates:

It is no more news that elections in Nigeria are
highly monetized. Also, it is pertinent to note that
the majority of the voting population in Nigeria are
the lower class in the society. These people are
prone to the evil machinations and manipulations of
the political class, who are hell-bent on subjecting
them to political slavery, by constantly deceiving
them to trade their political birth-rights, for a paltry
sum of money or gifts. Sadly, these strategies work
for the politicians and would no doubt rear its ugly
head again in next year's presidential race. The PDP
will no doubt have the upper-hand in the 'share the
money' campaign.
A Nigerian voter slots his ballot paper into the ballot
box

6. The Billionaires Influence:

Nigeria is reputed to have the highest number of
billionaires in Africa. Suffice to say that most of
these billionaires tacitly support the present
administration of Goodluck Jonathan for obvious
reasons. They are the high and mighty in the
society. Their combined wealth can sustain the 36
states of the federation for four years. They have
benefited immensely from the government's
policies and will not fold their arms and see their
interests undermined. They all (at least openly)
support the president's re-election bid and all of
them are expected to contribute financially to his
campaign which will no doubt give the president an
edge over his opponents.

Posted By David Aniemeka